Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Forgetting Where the Finish Line Is

Much of the horse race style political commentary about the Republican primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire has included predictions based on the rubrics of past campaigns. Thus, there was false speculation that Fred Thompson might drop out if he did poorly in Iowa. Now, people are saying that a Mitt Romney loss in New Hampshire puts his campaign on "life support." And don't forget, Rudy Giuliani's campaign was mistaken to to ignore the early states, and he has no chance.

All of this is nonsense, and the patterns of every campaign in my lifetime do not apply. Why would any Republican leave the race when there remains the possibility of a brokered convention? And with 5 politically viable candidates in the field, a brokered convention remains a real possibility. For each candidate, hanging on to his supporters is absolutely critical.

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