Saturday, January 27, 2007

The No-Poll Zone

The Washington Post has a breathtaking report that Hillary Clinton, who has never campaigned for herself in Iowa, is not leading in the polls there at this point in time, which is about a year prior to the 2008 Democratic caucus. The report offers The Oracle a good opportunity to remind faithful readers that barring an occurrence of actual newsworthy importance, that this website will remain a poll-free zone. The Oracle only discusses matters that are either important or of personal interest, and the endless barrage of polls released during a modern election cycle (which is to say over a never ending continuum) does not qualify on either count.

One might recall that in December 2003 (just a couple of months prior to the Iowa caucus) the overwhelming front runner in Iowa was Howard Dean. A couple of ill advised remarks and an endorsement by Al Gore later, and the Dean campaign was in free fall. The ultimate outcome was a real scream.

Polling a full year prior to an election is meaningless. Polls are campaign or media generated news events, not real news. Political spinmeisters do not adhere to scientific theories of falsifiability. Whatever the poll results, the spinners will claim them to be positive for their candidate.

The Oracle covers the horses, not the horse race. If polls are your thing, you won't find it here.


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