Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Can the Democrats Win the House?

Former House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt reportedly told a group of investment advisors last week that Democrats likely would not gain a majority in the House of Representatives in the fall elections, according to an article in The Hill. Gephardt now denies making the remarks, calling them "hearsay." However, he acknowledges that gaining enough seats to win control will be difficult, particularly given the reality of carefully gerrymandered districts.

To win, the Democrats will have to win 15 Republican seats. Since 1994, no more than 10 seats have changed hands in any election cycle. However, this is the most combustible election in recent memory, with Republicans having succeeded in alienating their base and Democrats failing to demonstrate the capacity to govern.

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